Archive for May, 2009
UCLA Anderson Forecast’s Outlook for San Diego County: Recession for Most of 2009 with a Recovery in Housing Market
May 20th, 2009 Categories: Brookside Escondido, Market Trends, Real Estate News, San Diego
The forecast for San Diego County came out from UCLA Anderson and it presents some interesting news for San Diego and the local economy and real estate markets. I’ve reprinted the press release below, dated May 15, 2009. 
The UCLA Anderson Forecast today released its annual economic forecast for San Diego County. The Forecast states the official end month for the national recession is likely to be early in the second half of 2009, and the worst of the problems for San Diego will then be over. The unemployment rate for the nation and San Diego is likely to continue to elevate until growth becomes strong enough to absorb new entrants into the labor market.
“As the U.S. and California economies continue to contract, San Diego’s unemployment rate will grow to 10.3% in 2009. The deterioration in the local economy is led by growing layoffs in non-residential construction, manufacturing and retail jobs,” said Jerry Nickelsburg, senior economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast. “But there is light at the end of the tunnel. A forecast turnaround in the U.S. and California economies later this year should begin the recovery process in San Diego by the end of the year.”
Because 2009 will be a rough year for California, which has larger intrinsic problems than the nation, the San Diego County economy will remain weak. The commercial real estate markets have softened along with the labor markets, and more problems with refinancing this year could weaken the office market even further.
Residential real estate is poised to recover in 2009. Sales of homes have soared in the county and values appear to have stabilized. Both new inventory of homes and foreclosure inventory are currently on the decline.
“As long as homeowner distress does not rebound and recent federal government programs designed to avert foreclosure have some success, a more conventional recovery in the residential sector should be underway this year,” said Mark Schniepp, author of the San Diego forecast report. “By mid to late 2010, the recovery of the broader San Diego County economy should be more convincing and 2011 will be a year of above average economic growth including job and income creation.”
If you would like more information about a specific neighborhood in San Diego we’re here to help. Let us know your questions and we’ll find you the answer.
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March Existing-Home Sales Slip but First-Time Buyers Rise
May 3rd, 2009 Categories: Market Trends, Real Estate News
A latest report from the National Association of Realtors reveals some interesting new facts. Not unexpectedly, home prices continue the downward trend but sales for the month of March were up again. Please read the full report below.
Existing-home sales eased in March but first-time buyers are responding to low mortgage interest rates and tax credits, according to the National Association of Realtors .
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market appears to be stabilizing with modest monthly ups and downs, and that first-time buyers are driving the market. “The share of lower priced home sales has trended up, indicating a return of many first-time buyers, which we also see in a parallel member survey,” he said. “Sales in the upper price ranges remain stalled because of higher interest rates on jumbo loans.”
Although prices rose from February to March, the national median existing-home price for all housing types was $175,200, down 12.4 percent from March 2008. The price increase from February to March was 4.2 percent, which is much higher than the typical 1.8 percent seasonal increase between those two months. Distressed properties, which accounted for just over half of all transactions in March, typically are selling for 20 percent less than traditional homes.
An NAR practitioner survey in March showed first-time buyers accounted for 53 percent of transactions, based largely on contracts offered before the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit became available. “Buyer traffic has been rising, and real estate offices are getting phone inquires about the tax credit,” Yun said. “By early summer we should be seeing a positive impact on home sales from record-low mortgage interest rates in addition to the stimulus provisions.”
NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said first-time buyers are crucial at this stage of a housing recovery. “The housing market always heals from the bottom up, and with large numbers of first-time buyers entering the market it will become a little easier for sellers to trade up or down, according to their needs,” he said.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 5.00 percent in March from 5.13 percent in February; the rate was 5.97 percent in March 2008; data collection began in 1971.
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