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Brookside 92026 Market Update

Market Trends Report market update ESCONDIDO 92026

Sunday August 29, 2010

THIS WEEK

The median single family home price in ESCONDIDO 92026 this week is $399,000.

Inventory and days-on-market are climbing, while the Market Action Index has been flat recently. The trends point to a weakening market.

PRICE

Again this week in this zip code we see a downward notch for prices. Pricing has been weak in recent weeks and versus their absolute-high level. At this point, we will be looking for a persistent upward shift in the Market Action Index as a leading indicator for a trough in prices.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Local conditions are currently quite strongly in the Buyer’s Market zone (below 30). The 90-day Market Action Index stands at 17. With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice.

QUARTILES

Investigate the market in quartiles—where each quartile is 25% of the homes listed.

Most expensive 25% of homes Upper-middle 25% of homes Lower-middle 25% of homes Least expensive 25% of homes

Trend

Real-Time Market Profile

$ 399,000 $ 190 140 30 % 9% 9% 2,303 0.50 – 1.0 acre 3.9 2.5 Cold! Buyer’s Market 17

The Market Action Index answers the question “How’s the Market?” by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory.

Index above 30 implies Seller’s Market conditions. Below 30, conditions favor the buyer.

Median List Price

Asking Price per Square Foot Average Days on Market Percent of Properties with Price Decrease Percent Relisted (reset DOM) Percent Flip (price increased) Median House Size (sq ft) Median Lot Size Median Number of Bedrooms Median Number of Bathrooms Market Action Index* * see below for details on the Market Action Index

Characteristics per Quartile

Quart

1 2 3 4

Median Price

$ 761,995 $ 464,500 $ 359,000 $ 250,000

Med. Sqft

3,722 2,541 1,936 1,376

Med. Lot Size 1.0 – 2.5 acres

0.25 – 0.50 acre 0.25 – 0.50 acre

6,501 – 8,000 sq ft

Med. Bed Bath Age Inven.

4.0 3.5 11 56 3.0 2.5 19 56 4.0 2.5 24 57 3.0 2.0 40 57

Ab- Avg. New sorbed DoM

3 5 192 2 7 134 6 3 123 3 4 116

Sue Johnson’s Market Research Report

Reprinted with Permission – Altos Research Corporation

Altos Research Corp. reports real-time analysis of the residential real estate market in local markets across the country. All information contained herein is based on properties currently listed for sale and available publicly. When evaluating a particular property, make sure you use comparable sales data in addition to the market trend information available in this report. The data presented in this report is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but cannot be guaranteed as such. Use this report as one input in the real estate decision making process, but do not rely on it for accuracy. Nothing in this report or any other Altos Research publication is a recommendation to buy or to sell real estate. We recommend you work with a licensed real estate agent or broker.

Copyright 2005-2010 Altos Research LLC

www.altosresearch.com

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FHA’s ‘First Look’ Initiative to Help Communities Stabilize Neighborhoods Hard-Hit by Foreclosure

RISMEDIA, July 27, 2010—The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) announced a new initiative that gives state and local governments, and nonprofit organizations participating in HUD’s Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) preference to acquire homes from the Department’s inventory of foreclosed properties, commonly known as “HUD homes.” The initiative was announced by HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan at the National Council of La Raza annual conference in San Antonio, Texas.

A Notice outlining this temporary initiative will be published this week in the Federal Register. This Notice details how the sale of HUD Homes under the Federal Housing Administration’s (FHA’s) First Look Sales Method will align NSP and FHA requirements to provide NSP grantees an exclusive option to purchase HUD homes before they are marketed to other purchasers.

“This First Look initiative is a marriage of two programs to accelerate our effort to confront property abandonment in communities struggling to overcome the effects of the foreclosure crisis,” said Secretary Donovan. “By essentially giving our NSP grantees a first bite at the apple, we hope to accelerate the sale of FHA’s foreclosed properties while supporting the Obama Administration’s neighborhood stabilization efforts.”

Through the FHA First Look Sales Method, HUD will offer NSP grantees a preference (“First Look”) to acquire available HUD homes within the defined boundaries of NSP-designated areas. Furthermore, First Look will provide NSP purchasers with the opportunity to purchase FHA properties at a discount of 10% below their appraised value, less the cost of any applicable listing and sales commissions.

The FHA-NSP First Look period will last approximately 14 days from the conveyance of a property to FHA. Properties that remain unpurchased at the expiration of the First Look period will be listed and sold according to standard FHA procedures. Eligible NSP grantees may acquire these properties with the assistance of NSP funds for any eligible use under NSP, including rental or homeownership. This sales method becomes effective today and continues through May 31, 2013.

HUD’s Neighborhood Stabilization Program was created to address the housing crisis, create jobs and grow local economies by providing communities with the resources to purchase and rehabilitate vacant homes. NSP grants are helping state and local governments, as well as non-profit developers acquire land and property; demolish or rehabilitate abandoned properties; and/or offer downpayment and closing cost assistance to low- to middle-income home buyers. Grantees can also stabilize neighborhoods by creating “land banks” to assemble, temporarily manage and dispose of foreclosed homes.

FHA employs a variety of methods to sell its foreclosed properties in a manner that expands homeownership opportunities, strengthens neighborhoods and communities and ensures a maximum return to the mortgage insurance fund.

For more information, visit www.hud.gov.

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Homeowner Confidence Rises Nationally, But Western Homeowners Remain Pessimistic

RISMEDIA, July 5, 2010—As some parts of the U.S. housing market work their way out of the housing recession, while the majority of markets continue to decline, homeowners across the country had mixed opinions of the state of their own homes’ values, according to the Zillow Q1 Homeowner Confidence Survey. Nationally, homeowners were overconfident, with half (50%) believing their own home’s value declined in the past year. In reality, 65% of U.S. homes declined in value, according to Zillow’s Q1 Real Estate Market Reports.

Meanwhile, 7% of homeowners, which translates to 5.3 million homes, said they would be “very likely” to put their home on the market in the next 12 months if they see signs of the housing market improving. By comparison, 5.2 million existing homes were sold during 2009. An additional 8% said they would be “likely” to put their home on the market, and another 14% said they would be “somewhat likely.” These homeowners represent “sidelined sellers,” a component of shadow inventory that if materialized, could significantly delay timing of a market recovery.

The most pessimistic homeowners reside in the West, even as home values in many California and Colorado metros have stabilized over the past year, according to the Zillow Q1 Real Estate Market Reports. Eighteen percent of Western homeowners believe that their home gained value over the past year when in reality 31% of Western homes gained value. That resulted in a Misperception Index of -12 (a Misperception Index of zero would indicate that homeowner perception is in line with reality, and a negative Misperception Index indicates that homeowners are overly cynical about their own homes’ values).

On the other end of the spectrum were Southern homeowners, who were overly optimistic, even as many Southern markets continue to see significant decreases in home values. Thirty-four percent of Southern homeowners said that their home gained value over the past year when in reality 27% of homes gained value. That resulted in a Misperception Index of 14.

Homeowners in the Northeast and Midwest recorded Misperception Indexes of -2 and 4, respectively.

“It is clear that there is a lag between market realities and public perceptions of home values. For quite a while after the market peak, Western homeowners continued to believe their own homes’ values were doing better than they were in reality,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “Conversely, after years of press coverage about declining home values, homeowner perceptions are now in line with market conditions from early last year, although the Western market has improved since then.

“We see the opposite phenomena in the South where home values in most markets – with the exception of Florida – took some time to begin falling. Many markets there have recently joined the housing recession in earnest, with five of the nine Southern states tracked by Zillow hitting their home value peak after 2007, but homeowners there are likely to believe the downturn has not affected them. This could also be a result of the fact that most attention has been on the hardest-hit areas of California, Florida, Nevada, Arizona and Michigan, and homeowners outside of these markets may have less information about what has happened in their local markets.

“However, when homeowners across the country do start to believe that their home’s value has stopped declining, we can expect to see a lot of new inventory entering the market via sidelined sellers. This added inventory, combined with current elevated inventory levels and continued high rates of foreclosure in many areas, will likely serve to keep home values treading near the bottom for several years. Inventory must come down for home values to go up.”

Homeowner Perception of Future Home Values
Looking forward, homeowners are fairly positive about their own home’s value over the next six months, but like Misperception Index, the degree of optimism varies wildly among regions. In the Northeast, more than half (51%) of homeowners believe their home’s value will increase over the next six months while in the Midwest less than one-third (29%) of homeowners believe their home’s value will increase. Nationally, 39% of homeowners believe their own home’s value will increase during the next six months.

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